Domestic fuel prices in Pakistan are expected to witness a significant increase in the coming days, with petrol likely to rise by PKR 21 per litre and diesel by PKR 27 per litre, as global oil markets react to growing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
According to a prediction made by Arif Habib Limited (AHL), a well-respected financial advisory and brokerage firm, the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict has pushed international oil prices upward. Since June 13, 2025, the price of Gas Oil (used for diesel) has increased by 9.6%, while Gasoline (used for petrol) has risen by 4.5%.
As of June 20, 2025, the global price of Gas Oil has reached USD 93.3 per barrel, and Gasoline stands at USD 83.4 per barrel. If these trends continue, Pakistani consumers are likely to bear the brunt of this international surge in the form of increased fuel costs at the pump.
AHL’s analysis highlights the vulnerability of Pakistan’s domestic fuel pricing mechanism, which is directly linked to international oil markets. Any fluctuation in global prices—especially due to political unrest or supply chain disruptions—can lead to immediate impacts on local fuel rates.
The expected price adjustment, if implemented, would add further pressure on Pakistan’s economy, which is already grappling with inflation and high energy costs. The rise in diesel prices, in particular, could have a cascading effect on transportation, agriculture, and industrial sectors, ultimately leading to higher prices for essential goods and services.
Arif Habib Limited emphasized that the forecast is based on current international trends, and actual price changes will depend on the final review by the government and OGRA (Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority) in the upcoming fortnightly pricing decision.
As the situation in the Middle East evolves, Pakistani authorities and consumers alike remain on alert for further updates, with hopes that geopolitical stability may bring some relief to global energy markets.
