Fuel prices in Pakistan are likely to go up from July 1 due to a recent increase in international oil rates. A report by Arif Habib Limited (AHL) shows that the average global price of diesel rose by over 10% in the second half of June, while petrol prices went up by nearly 6%.
The global price surge followed tensions earlier this month between Israel and Iran, which pushed crude oil benchmarks higher—WTI by 5.2%, Brent by 6.9%, and Arab Light by 7%. Although a ceasefire on June 24 calmed markets slightly, with diesel and petrol dipping 0.6% and 6.6% respectively, the rise still affects Pakistan’s pricing outlook.
Based on the current trends, local diesel prices may increase by Rs. 18.06 per litre to Rs. 280.65, and petrol by Rs. 13.86 per litre to Rs. 272.29 starting July 1. However, the government is expected to cushion the impact by temporarily lowering the Petroleum Development Levy (PDL). This could limit the price hike to around Rs. 4.5 per litre for diesel and Rs. 8 per litre for petrol.
There is hope for relief in the second half of the month. If the downward trend in global markets continues, prices might drop again after the July 15 review, with a possible cut of Rs. 13.47 for diesel and Rs. 5.89 for petrol.
