Global oil markets may experience very high instability in the coming months, with prices expected to move sharply in either direction depending on global political developments.
Experts say crude oil could rise dramatically to between 150 and 200 dollars per barrel if tensions increase in key regions. On the other hand, if diplomatic talks and peace efforts succeed, prices could fall significantly as supply conditions improve.
A major concern is the situation in the Persian Gulf and around the Strait of Hormuz, which is one of the most important routes for global oil transport.
Any disruption in this area could reduce oil supply worldwide and quickly push prices higher. Such a situation would affect many countries, especially weaker and developing economies that are already facing financial pressure.
For Pakistan, changes in global oil prices could have a direct and strong impact on fuel costs. In a positive scenario where tensions ease, petrol prices in the country could fall by as much as 150 rupees per litre, giving relief to consumers and businesses.
However, in a serious crisis situation, fuel prices could rise sharply and even approach 1,000 rupees per litre, which would put heavy pressure on households and industries.
Higher oil prices would also increase inflation, raise transport and production costs, and worsen the national budget deficit. This would make it harder for the government to manage economic stability.
On the other hand, if peace efforts succeed and oil supply remains stable, it could bring relief in energy costs and help reduce inflation pressure.
