On November 4, 1960, the scientific journal Science published a paper titled “Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, A.D. 2026,” written by Heinz von Foerster and his colleagues Patricia M. Mora and Lawrence W. Amiot.
The study explored a startling mathematical possibility: if the human population continued growing at an increasingly rapid rate, the number of people on Earth could theoretically approach infinity on November 13, 2026.
The researchers developed their model using historical population data spanning from 1 AD to 1958. Their calculations suggested that human population growth was not following a simple, constant pattern. Instead, they argued that the rate of growth was accelerating over time.
By extending that mathematical trend into the future, the researchers arrived at a date that became known as the study’s hypothetical “doomsday.”
The paper included a dramatic warning that humans could eventually face a situation in which they would be “squeezed to death.” However, the authors were not predicting an asteroid impact, a nuclear catastrophe, or the supernatural end of the world.
Their concern was much more grounded in mathematics and human survival: what would happen if the world’s population continued increasing without slowing down, eventually placing unbearable pressure on the planet’s limited resources?
Under the assumptions used in their model, population growth would become so extreme that the mathematical equation would approach a singularity, a point at which the calculated population effectively tends toward infinity.
This was not a claim that billions of people would suddenly appear on a particular day. Rather, November 13, 2026, represented the theoretical limit produced by extending the observed growth pattern far beyond the period in which the researchers had collected their data.
The model’s long-term projection did not match reality. During the decades that followed the paper’s publication, population growth patterns began changing.
Birth rates declined in many countries as access to education, contraception and healthcare expanded, urbanization increased, and families increasingly chose to have fewer children. Although the world’s population continued to grow, the accelerating trend assumed by the original model did not continue indefinitely.
The difference between the projection and reality became increasingly clear over time. The model implied that the global population could exceed 76 billion by 2024 if its mathematical assumptions continued to hold. In reality, the world’s population was approximately 8.2 billion in 2024 and is around 8.3 billion in 2026, far below the study’s hypothetical projection.
As November 13, 2026, approaches, the paper has attracted renewed attention because of its ominous title and specific date. However, the date should not be interpreted as a deadline for humanity or evidence that the world is about to end.
The prediction depended on a mathematical assumption about continued accelerating population growth, and that assumption did not reflect the demographic changes that unfolded over the following decades.
The study remains an interesting historical example of how mathematical models can reveal potential dangers while also demonstrating their limitations.
A model is only as reliable as the assumptions and conditions on which it depends. When those conditions change, its long-term projections can become increasingly inaccurate.
The real message behind the 1960 paper was not that the world would end in November 2026. It was a warning about the consequences of unchecked population growth and the importance of understanding the limits of resources on a finite planet. November 13, 2026, is a date generated by a historical mathematical model, not a scientifically established doomsday prediction.
